The outlook projected that economic growth will remain sluggish and marginal in 2025 due to low productivity in critical sectors and low investment levels. The service sectors will remain the main driver of economic growth but will be incapable of generating significant jobs. The oil sector will continue to rebound and also drive output in 2025. Similarly, investments in critical sectors such as agriculture should increase.

The outlook predicts three possible economic outcomes in 2025 captured in three scenario analyses. The best-case scenario is an optimistic outlook based on favourable economic shifts, and the real GDP is projected to grow by 3.64% in 2025. The base case scenario, which is business as usual, assumes stable conditions with minimal change in the current macroeconomic environment. The outcome of the base case scenario is a 3.1% real GDP growth rate in 2025. Lastly, the worst-case scenario assumes a pessimistic outlook and anticipates adverse conditions. It forecasts a 2.53% real GDP growth rate in 2025.

Headline inflation will remain stubbornly high in 2025, although it is expected to ease moderately compared to 2024. The sustained inflationary pressure will be driven by recurring challenges such as currency depreciation, food inflation due to insecurity and climate change impact (such as flooding), high energy costs, and elevated logistics costs.

The exchange rate is projected to remain highly volatile in 2025, driven by internal and external economic conditions and geopolitical dynamics.

To get more information and insights, You can download the outlook here: https://www.verivafrica.com/2025outlook